Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Discussions about politics and goings on around the world. (Please keep discussions civil!)
User avatar
Philip
Site Owner
Posts: 9405
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:45 pm
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Day-Age
Location: Betwixt the Sea and the Mountains

Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by Philip »

As so many people are screening or blocking calls, not picking up their phones if they don't recognize a number, as millions no longer own a landline, and very few willing to open their door to pollsters, I fail to see how, nowadays, any poll could be anywhere near accurate. A methodology is only going to be as good as the sampling being polled! I know one thing, as their credibility is already very suspect, if pre-election day polls don't get much closer to how this midterm goes down, they'll basically be considered irrelevant speculation from now on. And while large polling organizations might have the money to find technical ways to tweak their techniques, the smaller polls don't have the resources to get terribly sophisticated.
User avatar
RickD
Make me a Sammich Member
Posts: 22063
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:59 am
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Day-Age
Location: Kitchen

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by RickD »

Philip wrote: Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:17 pm As so many people are screening or blocking calls, not picking up their phones if they don't recognize a number, as millions no longer own a landline, and very few willing to open their door to pollsters, I fail to see how, nowadays, any poll could be anywhere near accurate. A methodology is only going to be as good as the sampling being polled! I know one thing, as their credibility is already very suspect, if pre-election day polls don't get much closer to how this midterm goes down, they'll basically be considered irrelevant speculation from now on. And while large polling organizations might have the money to find technical ways to tweak their techniques, the smaller polls don't have the resources to get terribly sophisticated.
What do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!

Sheeple believe what they want to believe.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.


“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow




St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
User avatar
edwardmurphy
Ultimate Member
Posts: 2302
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:45 am
Christian: No
Sex: Male
Creation Position: I don't believe in creation

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by edwardmurphy »

RickD wrote: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pmWhat do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
RickD wrote: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pmSheeple believe what they want to believe.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.

Sheeple, indeed...
DBowling
Ultimate Member
Posts: 2050
Joined: Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:23 pm
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Day-Age

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by DBowling »

edwardmurphy wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:10 am
RickD wrote: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pmWhat do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!
The polls were actually really close in 2016.
The nation wide polls were pretty accurate. Which is why the national popular vote was very close to the polls.

It was the statewide polls (with smaller sample sizes) in key states that were inaccurate, which is why Trump won the electoral vote (the vote that matters) while losing the popular vote.

The lesson to learn from 2016 is that state wide polls could be inaccurate. And this year every race is a state wide race.

The key this year is who is more fired up to get to the polls.
I was actually going to stay home this year... but my wife convinced me otherwise. I decided to vote as I normally would, with two exceptions... to make a very specific point.
PaulSacramento
Board Moderator
Posts: 9224
Joined: Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:29 pm
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Theistic Evolution
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by PaulSacramento »

Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?

If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
User avatar
RickD
Make me a Sammich Member
Posts: 22063
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:59 am
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Day-Age
Location: Kitchen

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by RickD »

PaulSacramento wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?

If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
You Canadians are lucky. You have the luxury of waiting to see what happens here in the USA, and just follow our lead.

:lol:
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.


“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow




St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
User avatar
RickD
Make me a Sammich Member
Posts: 22063
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:59 am
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Day-Age
Location: Kitchen

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by RickD »

EdwardMurphy wrote:
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
I wish more people would do that. Unfortunately, I think too many people let the polls influence them.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.


“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow




St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
User avatar
edwardmurphy
Ultimate Member
Posts: 2302
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:45 am
Christian: No
Sex: Male
Creation Position: I don't believe in creation

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by edwardmurphy »

RickD wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 amI know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
Which part was insane?
We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion
Trump has been saying that for a couple of weeks, although the troop requirements started lower.
We have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy)
The GOP tax bill made tax cuts that disproportionately favored the wealthy and the big corporations. The tax cuts weren't accompanied with spending cuts. The GOP (in direct opposition to every economist I've ever heard) claimed that economic growth would make up the difference. It didn't. And now McConnell just started up about how entitlements need to be cut because we just don't have enough money to cover them. None of that is accidental or coincidental. It's all part of the plan.
If the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away
That's vintage B.W., but it's also Hannity, Limbaugh, the NRA, and Trump.
All liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation)
That's a literal description of the debate over the ACA. It started with the Heritage Foundation and was implemented in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. Then Obama grabbed onto it as a compromise move that the GOP would be hard pressed to reject, and suddenly it was - literally - derided as "socialism."

None of that is news.
PaulSacramento
Board Moderator
Posts: 9224
Joined: Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:29 pm
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Theistic Evolution
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by PaulSacramento »

RickD wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:23 am
PaulSacramento wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?

If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
You Canadians are lucky. You have the luxury of waiting to see what happens here in the USA, and just follow our lead.

:lol:
Or the opposite.

:D
User avatar
B. W.
Ultimate Member
Posts: 8355
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 8:17 am
Christian: Yes
Location: Colorado

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by B. W. »

RickD wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 am
EdwardMurphy wrote:
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
I wish more people would do that. Unfortunately, I think too many people let the polls influence them.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
Why drag me into this conversation comrade Ricksky...
-
-
-
Science is man's invention - creation is God's
(by B. W. Melvin)

Old Polish Proverb:
Not my Circus....not my monkeys
User avatar
edwardmurphy
Ultimate Member
Posts: 2302
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:45 am
Christian: No
Sex: Male
Creation Position: I don't believe in creation

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by edwardmurphy »

B. W. wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:14 pmWhy drag me into this conversation comrade Ricksky...
I know, right? Some of us are just trying to peacefully coexist here...
User avatar
edwardmurphy
Ultimate Member
Posts: 2302
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:45 am
Christian: No
Sex: Male
Creation Position: I don't believe in creation

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by edwardmurphy »

PaulSacramento wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pmOr the opposite.
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
PaulSacramento
Board Moderator
Posts: 9224
Joined: Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:29 pm
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Theistic Evolution
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by PaulSacramento »

edwardmurphy wrote: Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 am
PaulSacramento wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pmOr the opposite.
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
I can say this, the US has, in principle, the potential to be the greatest country in the world.
Your constitution is well done, your view of the existence of inalienable rights is correct, your understanding of limited government is correct ( in theory if not in practice), your push for limited regulations and free market are correct.
Your push for free speech is, quite simply, the best around -
To protect the right to speak of the very person that says and stands for things that you would spend your lifetime opposing- THAT is TRUE free speech.


Problem is that you guys are so divided that you can't see the forest from the trees.
User avatar
RickD
Make me a Sammich Member
Posts: 22063
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 7:59 am
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Day-Age
Location: Kitchen

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by RickD »

PaulSacramento wrote: Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:24 am
edwardmurphy wrote: Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 am
PaulSacramento wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pmOr the opposite.
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
I can say this, the US has, in principle, the potential to be the greatest country in the world.
Your constitution is well done, your view of the existence of inalienable rights is correct, your understanding of limited government is correct ( in theory if not in practice), your push for limited regulations and free market are correct.
Your push for free speech is, quite simply, the best around -
To protect the right to speak of the very person that says and stands for things that you would spend your lifetime opposing- THAT is TRUE free speech.


Problem is that you guys are so divided that you can't see the forest from the trees.
Paul,

You do realize that one of the reasons why the country is so divided, is because one side doesn't believe, in practice, in the things you listed above.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.


“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow




St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
abelcainsbrother
Ultimate Member
Posts: 5016
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:31 am
Christian: Yes
Sex: Male
Creation Position: Gap Theory

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Post by abelcainsbrother »

edwardmurphy wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:08 am
RickD wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 amI know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
Which part was insane?
We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion
Trump has been saying that for a couple of weeks, although the troop requirements started lower.
We have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy)
The GOP tax bill made tax cuts that disproportionately favored the wealthy and the big corporations. The tax cuts weren't accompanied with spending cuts. The GOP (in direct opposition to every economist I've ever heard) claimed that economic growth would make up the difference. It didn't. And now McConnell just started up about how entitlements need to be cut because we just don't have enough money to cover them. None of that is accidental or coincidental. It's all part of the plan.
If the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away
That's vintage B.W., but it's also Hannity, Limbaugh, the NRA, and Trump.
All liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation)
That's a literal description of the debate over the ACA. It started with the Heritage Foundation and was implemented in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. Then Obama grabbed onto it as a compromise move that the GOP would be hard pressed to reject, and suddenly it was - literally - derided as "socialism."

None of that is news.

You are wrong about Trump's tax cuts claiming they are tax cuts for the rich,This is just a Democrat talking point that is mumbo jumbo,because despite running on sticking up for the little guy and making the rich pay their fair share they never did,election after election. Don't forget the DNC rigged the Democrat primaries so tht Bernie Sanders could not win and he made Hillary look like a moderate.

The Democrats have NEVER made the rich pay their fair share instead they make it harder on the middle class and poor to drive them to be poorer so that they will become dependant on the Government for votes.The DEMOCRATS give tax cuts to the rich also because of donations to their party.

The rich donate to Democrats and this is why they'll never pay their fair share until the mark of the beast system. But I digress, Trump's tax cuts were specifically directed to the middle class and poor mostly because if you live in a house over $150,000 you now pay more in taxes. Nancy Pelosi's taxes went up!
Hebrews 12:2-3 Looking unto Jesus the author and finisher of our faith;who for the joy that was set before him endured the cross,despising the shame,and is set down at the right hand of the throne of God.

2nd Corinthians 4:4 In whom the god of this world hath blinded the minds of them which believe not,lest the light of this glorious gospel of Christ,who is the image of God,should shine unto them.
Post Reply