10 generations and done?

[PaulSacramento]

The book "The Tenth Generation" George E Mendenhall (1973) is well worth studying in the light of the present historical circumstances. It is an analysis of the rise and fall of civilizations and kingdoms based on the history of the nation of Israel in the Bible. The thesis is that on average, nations only have a life of about 300 years, ten generations, and then they are destroyed from within. This conclusion was based on a study of I think 21 ancient civilizations, some of which, like the Hittites, vanished from the pages of history until exhumed by archaeologists like Mendenhall. He summarizes his findings as follows:

"The Tenth Generation witnessed and took part in the destruction of civilization. It seems possible -- both from direct historical evidence and by analogy with later periods of crisis which seem to be similar in other respects - to make some generalizations about that Tenth Generation."
-it is not characterized by poverty.
-it is characterized by a relatively high density of population...
-a breakdown in confidence in the existing social and political organization.
-a rejection of past ideologies and a desire for something new.
-there is a loss of sense of direction.
-an increasing resort to illegitimate force and violence, which is almost inevitable following the loss of confidence in the political organization which by definition is the "monopoly of force."
-the increased insecurity of everyone in the areas is deeply felt, and there may be a sense of foreboding, of impending doom.
Doom comes: by whatever agency is perhaps by now irrelevant. The political, social, and economic structures of society are destroyed or enormously weakened - usually by violence, either from within, or without. Society simply disintegrates.
deurbanization takes place. Cities are abandoned...a high percentage of the population lose their lives and what we call civilization - writing, art ...wealth, literature,...institutionalized religion - either cease to exist, or disappear..."



Thoughts?

[RickD]

The book "The Tenth Generation" George E Mendenhall (1973) is well worth studying in the light of the present historical circumstances. It is an analysis of the rise and fall of civilizations and kingdoms based on the history of the nation of Israel in the Bible. The thesis is that on average, nations only have a life of about 300 years, ten generations, and then they are destroyed from within. This conclusion was based on a study of I think 21 ancient civilizations, some of which, like the Hittites, vanished from the pages of history until exhumed by archaeologists like Mendenhall. He summarizes his findings as follows:

"The Tenth Generation witnessed and took part in the destruction of civilization. It seems possible -- both from direct historical evidence and by analogy with later periods of crisis which seem to be similar in other respects - to make some generalizations about that Tenth Generation."
-it is not characterized by poverty.
-it is characterized by a relatively high density of population...
-a breakdown in confidence in the existing social and political organization.
-a rejection of past ideologies and a desire for something new.
-there is a loss of sense of direction.
-an increasing resort to illegitimate force and violence, which is almost inevitable following the loss of confidence in the political organization which by definition is the "monopoly of force."
-the increased insecurity of everyone in the areas is deeply felt, and there may be a sense of foreboding, of impending doom.
Doom comes: by whatever agency is perhaps by now irrelevant. The political, social, and economic structures of society are destroyed or enormously weakened - usually by violence, either from within, or without. Society simply disintegrates.
deurbanization takes place. Cities are abandoned...a high percentage of the population lose their lives and what we call civilization - writing, art ...wealth, literature,...institutionalized religion - either cease to exist, or disappear..."



Thoughts?

Looks like Canada has until 2167 then.

FYI,
England has been a nation since 927.

[Fliegender]

This “300 Years And A Nation Is Toast” idea seems like the now-discredited “21 days to start a new habit”. The idea is interesting but on closer examination it just doesn’t hold up. Just one example: the modern French republics started in 1792 and we are now at the Fifth French Republic. If you count all the previous French republics as one system, that would mean France as we know it should cease to exist in 2092 or thereabouts. Given the present problems in that country, it would be plausible. However, monarchical France existed from the middle Middle Ages (circa 490CE) and lasted until the French Revolution (1791-92). You could do the same exercise with other European nations.

The idea is interesting and serves to show that nations rise and fall with some degree of predictability...but that “300 years” is just bait for the mind.

[edwardmurphy]

The book "The Tenth Generation" George E Mendenhall (1973) is well worth studying in the light of the present historical circumstances. It is an analysis of the rise and fall of civilizations and kingdoms based on the history of the nation of Israel in the Bible. The thesis is that on average, nations only have a life of about 300 years, ten generations, and then they are destroyed from within. This conclusion was based on a study of I think 21 ancient civilizations, some of which, like the Hittites, vanished from the pages of history until exhumed by archaeologists like Mendenhall.

Interesting, but I need more information. I can't find a thorough review or summary or PDF of the book. The reviews I did find don't really focus on the parts that you're talking about, but they describe the book as a deep, dense, scholarly tome written with doctoral students as the expected audience.

Are you saying that Mendenhall looked at the kingdoms that rose and fell during the time period covered by the OT? So something like 2000 BCE to 400 BCE? Did he look at anything after that? Rome lasted for 400 years as the Roman Republic, another 500 as the Roman Empire, and an additional thousand as the Byzantine Empire. And when the Byzantines finally fell to the Turks in 1453 civilization didn't collapse. Constantinople became Istanbul, they added some minarets to the Hagia Sophia, and life went on.

Also, 300 years "on average?" If there were a lot of kingdoms, empires, city-states, and the like making it for about 300 years or 10 generations before collapsing then that would be really interesting. On the other hand, if one empire lasts 600 years and 20 generations, another lasts 250 and 8 generations, and a third lasts 50 years and 2 generations then the average is 300 years and 10 generations, but who cares? Are you thinking that Mendenhall's observations could be used to support a prediction about the current world?

He summarizes his findings as follows:

"The Tenth Generation witnessed and took part in the destruction of civilization. It seems possible -- both from direct historical evidence and by analogy with later periods of crisis which seem to be similar in other respects - to make some generalizations about that Tenth Generation."
-it is not characterized by poverty.
-it is characterized by a relatively high density of population...
-a breakdown in confidence in the existing social and political organization.
-a rejection of past ideologies and a desire for something new.
-there is a loss of sense of direction.
-an increasing resort to illegitimate force and violence, which is almost inevitable following the loss of confidence in the political organization which by definition is the "monopoly of force."
-the increased insecurity of everyone in the areas is deeply felt, and there may be a sense of foreboding, of impending doom.
Doom comes: by whatever agency is perhaps by now irrelevant. The political, social, and economic structures of society are destroyed or enormously weakened - usually by violence, either from within, or without. Society simply disintegrates.
deurbanization takes place. Cities are abandoned...a high percentage of the population lose their lives and what we call civilization - writing, art ...wealth, literature,...institutionalized religion - either cease to exist, or disappear..."

Your mention of the Hittites and the collapse of civilization makes me think that you're alluding to the Late Bronze Age Collapse. Nobody knows why that took place. It's possible that angst was a factor, but there was also a massive volcanic eruption that probably caused an immediate, short term change in the climate, and scientists also seem to think there was a prolonged drought at about the same time.

Also, I don't think the end of an empire typically leads to the collapse of civilization in the region. Yes, some cities might be sacked, some people might be massacred, scattered, or enslaved, and some language might be diminished it statue or even die out, but new cities were built, new people migrated in, and the new languages replaced the old.

Anyway, there are some scattered thoughts, as requested.