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Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:17 pm
by Philip
As so many people are screening or blocking calls, not picking up their phones if they don't recognize a number, as millions no longer own a landline, and very few willing to open their door to pollsters, I fail to see how, nowadays, any poll could be anywhere near accurate. A methodology is only going to be as good as the sampling being polled! I know one thing, as their credibility is already very suspect, if pre-election day polls don't get much closer to how this midterm goes down, they'll basically be considered irrelevant speculation from now on. And while large polling organizations might have the money to find technical ways to tweak their techniques, the smaller polls don't have the resources to get terribly sophisticated.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pm
by RickD
Philip wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:17 pm
As so many people are screening or blocking calls, not picking up their phones if they don't recognize a number, as millions no longer own a landline, and very few willing to open their door to pollsters, I fail to see how, nowadays, any poll could be anywhere near accurate. A methodology is only going to be as good as the sampling being polled! I know one thing, as their credibility is already very suspect, if pre-election day polls don't get much closer to how this midterm goes down, they'll basically be considered irrelevant speculation from now on. And while large polling organizations might have the money to find technical ways to tweak their techniques, the smaller polls don't have the resources to get terribly sophisticated.
What do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!

Sheeple believe what they want to believe.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:10 am
by edwardmurphy
RickD wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pm
What do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
RickD wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pm
Sheeple believe what they want to believe.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.

Sheeple, indeed...

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:53 am
by DBowling
edwardmurphy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:10 am
RickD wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 pm
What do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!
The polls were actually really close in 2016.
The nation wide polls were pretty accurate. Which is why the national popular vote was very close to the polls.

It was the statewide polls (with smaller sample sizes) in key states that were inaccurate, which is why Trump won the electoral vote (the vote that matters) while losing the popular vote.

The lesson to learn from 2016 is that state wide polls could be inaccurate. And this year every race is a state wide race.

The key this year is who is more fired up to get to the polls.
I was actually going to stay home this year... but my wife convinced me otherwise. I decided to vote as I normally would, with two exceptions... to make a very specific point.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am
by PaulSacramento
Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?

If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:23 am
by RickD
PaulSacramento wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am
Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?

If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
You Canadians are lucky. You have the luxury of waiting to see what happens here in the USA, and just follow our lead.

:lol:

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 am
by RickD
EdwardMurphy wrote:
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
I wish more people would do that. Unfortunately, I think too many people let the polls influence them.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:08 am
by edwardmurphy
RickD wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 am
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
Which part was insane?
We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion
Trump has been saying that for a couple of weeks, although the troop requirements started lower.
We have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy)
The GOP tax bill made tax cuts that disproportionately favored the wealthy and the big corporations. The tax cuts weren't accompanied with spending cuts. The GOP (in direct opposition to every economist I've ever heard) claimed that economic growth would make up the difference. It didn't. And now McConnell just started up about how entitlements need to be cut because we just don't have enough money to cover them. None of that is accidental or coincidental. It's all part of the plan.
If the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away
That's vintage B.W., but it's also Hannity, Limbaugh, the NRA, and Trump.
All liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation)
That's a literal description of the debate over the ACA. It started with the Heritage Foundation and was implemented in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. Then Obama grabbed onto it as a compromise move that the GOP would be hard pressed to reject, and suddenly it was - literally - derided as "socialism."

None of that is news.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pm
by PaulSacramento
RickD wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:23 am
PaulSacramento wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am
Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?

If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
You Canadians are lucky. You have the luxury of waiting to see what happens here in the USA, and just follow our lead.

:lol:
Or the opposite.

:D

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:14 pm
by B. W.
RickD wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 am
EdwardMurphy wrote:
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
I wish more people would do that. Unfortunately, I think too many people let the polls influence them.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
Why drag me into this conversation comrade Ricksky...
-
-
-

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:37 am
by edwardmurphy
B. W. wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:14 pm
Why drag me into this conversation comrade Ricksky...
I know, right? Some of us are just trying to peacefully coexist here...

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 am
by edwardmurphy
PaulSacramento wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Or the opposite.
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:24 am
by PaulSacramento
edwardmurphy wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 am
PaulSacramento wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Or the opposite.
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
I can say this, the US has, in principle, the potential to be the greatest country in the world.
Your constitution is well done, your view of the existence of inalienable rights is correct, your understanding of limited government is correct ( in theory if not in practice), your push for limited regulations and free market are correct.
Your push for free speech is, quite simply, the best around -
To protect the right to speak of the very person that says and stands for things that you would spend your lifetime opposing- THAT is TRUE free speech.


Problem is that you guys are so divided that you can't see the forest from the trees.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:32 am
by RickD
PaulSacramento wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:24 am
edwardmurphy wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 am
PaulSacramento wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Or the opposite.
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
I can say this, the US has, in principle, the potential to be the greatest country in the world.
Your constitution is well done, your view of the existence of inalienable rights is correct, your understanding of limited government is correct ( in theory if not in practice), your push for limited regulations and free market are correct.
Your push for free speech is, quite simply, the best around -
To protect the right to speak of the very person that says and stands for things that you would spend your lifetime opposing- THAT is TRUE free speech.


Problem is that you guys are so divided that you can't see the forest from the trees.
Paul,

You do realize that one of the reasons why the country is so divided, is because one side doesn't believe, in practice, in the things you listed above.

Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?

Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:03 pm
by abelcainsbrother
edwardmurphy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:08 am
RickD wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 am
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.
Which part was insane?
We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion
Trump has been saying that for a couple of weeks, although the troop requirements started lower.
We have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy)
The GOP tax bill made tax cuts that disproportionately favored the wealthy and the big corporations. The tax cuts weren't accompanied with spending cuts. The GOP (in direct opposition to every economist I've ever heard) claimed that economic growth would make up the difference. It didn't. And now McConnell just started up about how entitlements need to be cut because we just don't have enough money to cover them. None of that is accidental or coincidental. It's all part of the plan.
If the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away
That's vintage B.W., but it's also Hannity, Limbaugh, the NRA, and Trump.
All liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation)
That's a literal description of the debate over the ACA. It started with the Heritage Foundation and was implemented in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. Then Obama grabbed onto it as a compromise move that the GOP would be hard pressed to reject, and suddenly it was - literally - derided as "socialism."

None of that is news.

You are wrong about Trump's tax cuts claiming they are tax cuts for the rich,This is just a Democrat talking point that is mumbo jumbo,because despite running on sticking up for the little guy and making the rich pay their fair share they never did,election after election. Don't forget the DNC rigged the Democrat primaries so tht Bernie Sanders could not win and he made Hillary look like a moderate.

The Democrats have NEVER made the rich pay their fair share instead they make it harder on the middle class and poor to drive them to be poorer so that they will become dependant on the Government for votes.The DEMOCRATS give tax cuts to the rich also because of donations to their party.

The rich donate to Democrats and this is why they'll never pay their fair share until the mark of the beast system. But I digress, Trump's tax cuts were specifically directed to the middle class and poor mostly because if you live in a house over $150,000 you now pay more in taxes. Nancy Pelosi's taxes went up!