Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
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Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
As so many people are screening or blocking calls, not picking up their phones if they don't recognize a number, as millions no longer own a landline, and very few willing to open their door to pollsters, I fail to see how, nowadays, any poll could be anywhere near accurate. A methodology is only going to be as good as the sampling being polled! I know one thing, as their credibility is already very suspect, if pre-election day polls don't get much closer to how this midterm goes down, they'll basically be considered irrelevant speculation from now on. And while large polling organizations might have the money to find technical ways to tweak their techniques, the smaller polls don't have the resources to get terribly sophisticated.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
What do you mean? The polls were spot on, for the 2016 Presidential Election!Philip wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:17 pm As so many people are screening or blocking calls, not picking up their phones if they don't recognize a number, as millions no longer own a landline, and very few willing to open their door to pollsters, I fail to see how, nowadays, any poll could be anywhere near accurate. A methodology is only going to be as good as the sampling being polled! I know one thing, as their credibility is already very suspect, if pre-election day polls don't get much closer to how this midterm goes down, they'll basically be considered irrelevant speculation from now on. And while large polling organizations might have the money to find technical ways to tweak their techniques, the smaller polls don't have the resources to get terribly sophisticated.
Sheeple believe what they want to believe.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
Sheeple, indeed...
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
The nation wide polls were pretty accurate. Which is why the national popular vote was very close to the polls.
It was the statewide polls (with smaller sample sizes) in key states that were inaccurate, which is why Trump won the electoral vote (the vote that matters) while losing the popular vote.
The lesson to learn from 2016 is that state wide polls could be inaccurate. And this year every race is a state wide race.
The key this year is who is more fired up to get to the polls.
I was actually going to stay home this year... but my wife convinced me otherwise. I decided to vote as I normally would, with two exceptions... to make a very specific point.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?
If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
Are you happy?
If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
You Canadians are lucky. You have the luxury of waiting to see what happens here in the USA, and just follow our lead.PaulSacramento wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?
If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
I wish more people would do that. Unfortunately, I think too many people let the polls influence them.EdwardMurphy wrote:
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
Which part was insane?
We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasionTrump has been saying that for a couple of weeks, although the troop requirements started lower.
We have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy)The GOP tax bill made tax cuts that disproportionately favored the wealthy and the big corporations. The tax cuts weren't accompanied with spending cuts. The GOP (in direct opposition to every economist I've ever heard) claimed that economic growth would make up the difference. It didn't. And now McConnell just started up about how entitlements need to be cut because we just don't have enough money to cover them. None of that is accidental or coincidental. It's all part of the plan.
If the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns awayThat's vintage B.W., but it's also Hannity, Limbaugh, the NRA, and Trump.
All liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation)That's a literal description of the debate over the ACA. It started with the Heritage Foundation and was implemented in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. Then Obama grabbed onto it as a compromise move that the GOP would be hard pressed to reject, and suddenly it was - literally - derided as "socialism."
None of that is news.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
Or the opposite.RickD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:23 amYou Canadians are lucky. You have the luxury of waiting to see what happens here in the USA, and just follow our lead.PaulSacramento wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:32 am Only poll that matters:
Are you happy?
If the majority are not, there will be change and many times that change will be for the opposite.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
Why drag me into this conversation comrade Ricksky...RickD wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:27 amI wish more people would do that. Unfortunately, I think too many people let the polls influence them.EdwardMurphy wrote:
The polls were actually really close in 2016. Jac covered the issue in detail a couple of years ago. Feel free to look it up. Not that any of it matters anyway. Vote for whoever you support, and don't worry about the polls.
I know that your goal at this board is to balance out whatever B. W. says, buts let's try to keep the sanity.Indeed. We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasion, we have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy), if the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns away, all liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation), and on and on we go.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
I know, right? Some of us are just trying to peacefully coexist here...
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
Paul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
I can say this, the US has, in principle, the potential to be the greatest country in the world.edwardmurphy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 amPaul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
Your constitution is well done, your view of the existence of inalienable rights is correct, your understanding of limited government is correct ( in theory if not in practice), your push for limited regulations and free market are correct.
Your push for free speech is, quite simply, the best around -
To protect the right to speak of the very person that says and stands for things that you would spend your lifetime opposing- THAT is TRUE free speech.
Problem is that you guys are so divided that you can't see the forest from the trees.
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
Paul,PaulSacramento wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:24 amI can say this, the US has, in principle, the potential to be the greatest country in the world.edwardmurphy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 amPaul, the United States is the best country in the world. The way that we do everything is the best way to do it because that's how we do it and we're the best. Our healthcare system is the best in the world because it's in America and America is the best place with the best stuff. You only like your stuff because you're too Canadian to understand how crappy it is compared to our stuff. You're not happy, you've just been brainwashed into thinking that you are, and if you'd spent enough time here you'd realize that. I pity you for your ignorance.
Your constitution is well done, your view of the existence of inalienable rights is correct, your understanding of limited government is correct ( in theory if not in practice), your push for limited regulations and free market are correct.
Your push for free speech is, quite simply, the best around -
To protect the right to speak of the very person that says and stands for things that you would spend your lifetime opposing- THAT is TRUE free speech.
Problem is that you guys are so divided that you can't see the forest from the trees.
You do realize that one of the reasons why the country is so divided, is because one side doesn't believe, in practice, in the things you listed above.
John 5:24
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
24 “Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life.
“A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
-Edward R Murrow
St. Richard the Sarcastic--The Patron Saint of Irony
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Re: Polls: How Can They Be Accurate?
edwardmurphy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:08 amWhich part was insane?
We need 15,000 troops at the border to stop the Honduran invasionTrump has been saying that for a couple of weeks, although the troop requirements started lower.
We have to cut benefits for the poor because we just can't afford them (a year after a massive tax cut for the wealthy)The GOP tax bill made tax cuts that disproportionately favored the wealthy and the big corporations. The tax cuts weren't accompanied with spending cuts. The GOP (in direct opposition to every economist I've ever heard) claimed that economic growth would make up the difference. It didn't. And now McConnell just started up about how entitlements need to be cut because we just don't have enough money to cover them. None of that is accidental or coincidental. It's all part of the plan.
If the Democrats win anything, anywhere, ever they'll turn America into Venezuela and take all the guns awayThat's vintage B.W., but it's also Hannity, Limbaugh, the NRA, and Trump.
All liberal policies are socialism (even if they originated with the Heritage Foundation)That's a literal description of the debate over the ACA. It started with the Heritage Foundation and was implemented in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. Then Obama grabbed onto it as a compromise move that the GOP would be hard pressed to reject, and suddenly it was - literally - derided as "socialism."
None of that is news.
You are wrong about Trump's tax cuts claiming they are tax cuts for the rich,This is just a Democrat talking point that is mumbo jumbo,because despite running on sticking up for the little guy and making the rich pay their fair share they never did,election after election. Don't forget the DNC rigged the Democrat primaries so tht Bernie Sanders could not win and he made Hillary look like a moderate.
The Democrats have NEVER made the rich pay their fair share instead they make it harder on the middle class and poor to drive them to be poorer so that they will become dependant on the Government for votes.The DEMOCRATS give tax cuts to the rich also because of donations to their party.
The rich donate to Democrats and this is why they'll never pay their fair share until the mark of the beast system. But I digress, Trump's tax cuts were specifically directed to the middle class and poor mostly because if you live in a house over $150,000 you now pay more in taxes. Nancy Pelosi's taxes went up!
Hebrews 12:2-3 Looking unto Jesus the author and finisher of our faith;who for the joy that was set before him endured the cross,despising the shame,and is set down at the right hand of the throne of God.
2nd Corinthians 4:4 In whom the god of this world hath blinded the minds of them which believe not,lest the light of this glorious gospel of Christ,who is the image of God,should shine unto them.
2nd Corinthians 4:4 In whom the god of this world hath blinded the minds of them which believe not,lest the light of this glorious gospel of Christ,who is the image of God,should shine unto them.