Anyone hear strange sound's latey?

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PeteSinCA
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Re: Anyone hear strange sound's latey?

Post by PeteSinCA »

Seraph wrote:Long story short, mankind's influence on climate change is not a hoax, and the common rebuttals against it are basically always founded on ignorance.
Came across this article this AM while trolling for news:

McNider and Christy: Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change
By Richard McNider And John Christy
online.wsj.com
Updated Feb. 19, 2014 7:31 p.m. ET
In a Feb. 16 speech in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry assailed climate-change skeptics as members of the "Flat Earth Society" for doubting the reality of catastrophic climate change. He said, "We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists" and "extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts."

But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts? In ancient times, the notion of a flat Earth was the scientific consensus, and it was only a minority who dared question this belief. We are among today's scientists who are skeptical about the so-called consensus on climate change. Does that make us modern-day Flat Earthers, as Mr. Kerry suggests, or are we among those who defy the prevailing wisdom to declare that the world is round?
...
We should not have a climate-science research program that searches only for ways to confirm prevailing theories, and we should not honor government leaders, such as Secretary Kerry, who attack others for their inconvenient, fact-based views.
Don't forget to check out these G-W Skeptics' credentials, given at the bottom of the article. Heh!
Soapy Pete's Box

So I'll stand // With arms high and heart abandoned
In awe of the One Who gave it all - The Stand, Hillsong United

"To a world that was lost, He gave all He could give.
To show us the reason to live."
"We Are the Reason" by David Meece

"So why should I worry?
Why should I fret?
'Cause I've got a Mansion Builder
Who ain't through with me yet" - 2nd Chapter of Acts
Seraph
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Re: Anyone hear strange sound's latey?

Post by Seraph »

Well yes I know that there are legitimate scientists who provide research claiming to be evidence challenging GW, and that there have been cases where scientists with agendas have been guilty of exaggerating how much their research supports it. Neither of these however negate the overwhelming evidence in favor of it. For every 1 scientist that claims to have evidence against it, there's 50 scientists who claim to have evidence for it. The evidence for GW goes beyond just measurments of temperatures over the past decades or so, there have been computer generated models and such of effects of the sun's infrared rays interacting with molecules of certain man made gases, and those support the idea that manmade gases are enhancing the earth's greenhouse effect, and leading to an eventual runaway greenhouse effect. The different gases are categorized by their "CO2 equivalent" or how many times more effective a gas is than carbon dioxide at deflecting escaping infrared rays back down to the surface of the planet, thus heating it up. The CO2 equivalent is also called the gas' "global warming potential". Different gases identified as having high CO2 equivalents are these http://www.icbe.com/emissions/calculate.asp. The amount of CO2 equivalents emitted into the atmosphere by mankind, is strikingly high and increasing over time. Evidence from this angle, as opposed to measurments of temperatures over the years, has yet to be challenged in my view.
Maybe I was hasty to say that all arguments against it are founded in ignorance, but it seems to me that when an average joe is skeptical of it, it usually is.

That article you posted however, mostly just points out that there have been times in the past where the scientific consensus has been wrong. Does this mean that all underdog theories in the present all of a sudden have as much credibility as the one generally acknowledged by scientists? I don't think so. Also, forget Al Gore, he is not even a scientist and is far from the only proponent, or even close to the most credible proponent, of mankinds effect on climate change.

I'm also wary about an article posted in the wall street journal about climate change. I may be wrong on this, but they're an economic based news source, so theyre likely to be skewed in favor of what "truth" is more convenient to investors. Some have called them "a mouthpiece of corporations".
I am committed to belief in God, as the most morally demanding, psychologically enriching, intellectually satisfying and imaginatively fruitful hypothesis about the ultimate nature of reality known to me - Keith Ward
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PeteSinCA
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Re: Anyone hear strange sound's latey?

Post by PeteSinCA »

Long story short, mankind's influence on climate change is not a hoax, and the common rebuttals against it are basically always founded on ignorance.
OR
Well yes I know that there are legitimate scientists who provide research claiming to be evidence challenging GW
Which is it? And if you "knew" there are scientists with relevant credentials among AGW skeptics, why did you post "always founded on ignorance"?
... there have been cases where scientists with agendas have been guilty of exaggerating how much their research supports it.
Quite an understatement! Data has been cooked and re-cooked to fit the theory rather than the reverse. And contrary data has been ignored.
For every 1 scientist that claims to have evidence against it, there's 50 scientists who claim to have evidence for it.
Another venture into hyperbole?
The evidence for GW goes beyond just measurments of temperatures over the past decades or so ...
Climate is a phenomenon encompassing centuries and millennia. Mankind's ability to measure temperature - accurately and with a standard scale - at all may not extend back 3 full centuries, and the kind of worldwide network of numerous carefully installed and monitored measurement stations has been around, at best, a century and a half (and very likely, for less than a century). Indirect estimation methods are insufficiently precise and discriminating. All in all, the data we have is vastly insufficient to tell us whether recent observations represent actual climate change or just part of the pattern of multiple overlapping natural cycles (though the indirect data we do have actually are more consistent with the idea that we are yet within natural cycles).
... there have been computer generated models and such of effects of the sun's infrared rays interacting with molecules of certain man made gases, and those support the idea that manmade gases are enhancing the earth's greenhouse effect, and leading to an eventual runaway greenhouse effect.
Computer models are not evidence, for two reasons. First, models are generated using data and guesstimates to try to create something that would predict the future. Models work OK if we are talking about electronic circuit design. But climate/weather are vastly more complex, and the unknowns being guesstimated are very significant (and may be fatal to the various models). Second, the models have been around long enough that two things are known: their "predictions" of the past (time prior to the data on which the models were based) are usually very wrong; their predictions for the future have been wrong. The bottom line is that we simply do not have enough data or understand the Earth's climate enough (anywhere near enough!) to be making grandiose proclamations about the future.

The "gases" that have been central to this debate have been CO2, methane, NOx, and water vapor. These sometimes are byproducts of various human activities, but they are all natural gases; they are also produced, probably in vastly greater quantities, by other processes and activities in which humans are not involved.
... but it seems to me that when an average joe is skeptical of it, it usually is.
Joe, here, :wave: . How about you? Do you have a formal background in Climatology, Climate Physics, or Meteorology? Or are you also basically repeating what you have read? And regardless of whether or not we both are repeating what we have read, is that "ignorance".
That article you posted however, mostly just points out that there have been times in the past where the scientific consensus has been wrong. Does this mean that all underdog theories in the present all of a sudden have as much credibility as the one generally acknowledged by scientists? I don't think so.
No, but it demonstrates the fact that what we think we know may in fact be wrong or terribly misunderstood or incomplete. It shows the folly of arguing that a "consensus" proves anything in Science.
Also, forget Al Gore, he is not even a scientist and is far from the only proponent ...
I would gladly forget AlGore ... if he would just shut up and enjoy his mansion(s?) and jet-setting quietly. And maybe give places he visits in winter Gore Effect warnings. I brought him up because AlGore is easily the most visible proponent of the AGW theory and you had pointedly stated that AGW Skepticism is "always founded on ignorance".
I'm also wary about an article posted in the wall street journal about climate change. I may be wrong on this, but they're an economic based news source, so theyre likely to be skewed in favor of what "truth" is more convenient to investors. Some have called them "a mouthpiece of corporations".
I was wondering if you'd get to this standard-issue well-poisoning. Let me put the shoe on the other foot:

I'm also wary about an article posted in Global Warming advocating publications. I may be wrong on this, but they're all government funding based news sources, so theyre (sic) likely to be skewed in favor of what "truth" is more convenient to getting more government funds. Some have called them "a mouthpiece of government grant hunters".

See how flexible that "reasoning" is?! Change a few words and the "reasoning" is turned against you. Well-poisoning is fallacious; it's just a form of ad hominem attack. And this particular case illustrates that rather well. Had you bothered to read the article - or at least taken the comment in my post seriously - you would have read this at the bottom of the article:
Messrs. McNider and Christy are professors of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and fellows of the American Meteorological Society. Mr. Christy was a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore.
IOW, while TWSJ was the publication, the article authors have ample expertise and credentials. It wasn't simply for brevity that I did not include those two sentences in what I quoted this AM. To be honest, that you didn't bother to read the article far enough (if at all) to learn the authors' credentials, yet still dismissed them as bogeyman-corporation mouthpieces, doesn't surprise me.
Soapy Pete's Box

So I'll stand // With arms high and heart abandoned
In awe of the One Who gave it all - The Stand, Hillsong United

"To a world that was lost, He gave all He could give.
To show us the reason to live."
"We Are the Reason" by David Meece

"So why should I worry?
Why should I fret?
'Cause I've got a Mansion Builder
Who ain't through with me yet" - 2nd Chapter of Acts
Seraph
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Re: Anyone hear strange sound's latey?

Post by Seraph »

Which is it? And if you "knew" there are scientists with relevant credentials among AGW skeptics, why did you post "always founded on ignorance"?
I retracted this somewhat in the last sentence of the first paragraph of my last post. Maybe not always ignorant
Another venture into hyperbole?
Yes, I took a guesstimate, but the point being that scientists with evidence for it highly outweigh evidence against it. For all I know the actual number could be smaller than 50 to 1 or much larger.
Climate is a phenomenon encompassing centuries and millennia. Mankind's ability to measure temperature - accurately and with a standard scale - at all may not extend back 3 full centuries, and the kind of worldwide network of numerous carefully installed and monitored measurement stations has been around, at best, a century and a half (and very likely, for less than a century). Indirect estimation methods are insufficiently precise and discriminating. All in all, the data we have is vastly insufficient to tell us whether recent observations represent actual climate change or just part of the pattern of multiple overlapping natural cycles (though the indirect data we do have actually are more consistent with the idea that we are yet within natural cycles).
Then how do scientists know about the great warming of the middle ages, an event that global warming skeptics frequently cite? It seems that skeptics have faith in scientist's ability to measure temperature when it comes to that event.

It's not like the scientist's haven't considered that it could be overlapping natural cycles, I'm pretty sure they've been accounted for and it's agreed that the warming is not due to that. I think you underestimate climatologists accuracy and ability in this area.
Computer models are not evidence, for two reasons. First, models are generated using data and guesstimates to try to create something that would predict the future. Models work OK if we are talking about electronic circuit design. But climate/weather are vastly more complex, and the unknowns being guesstimated are very significant (and may be fatal to the various models). Second, the models have been around long enough that two things are known: their "predictions" of the past (time prior to the data on which the models were based) are usually very wrong; their predictions for the future have been wrong. The bottom line is that we simply do not have enough data or understand the Earth's climate enough (anywhere near enough!) to be making grandiose proclamations about the future.
The computer models were not about predicting future temperatures, they were for studying interactions between molecules of greenhouse gases and the sun's infrared rays, and the potential for it to insulate them within the earth's lower atmosphere, causing a rise in temperature. This info later contributes to predicting future temperatures.
The "gases" that have been central to this debate have been CO2, methane, NOx, and water vapor. These sometimes are byproducts of various human activities, but they are all natural gases; they are also produced, probably in vastly greater quantities, by other processes and activities in which humans are not involved.
Climatologists are aware of this, those are accounted for and are partly responsible for the planet's natural climate cycles. This is about heating *in addition* to what should result from the natural cycles caused by volcanoes, ice ages, solar cycles, etc...

Joe, here, :wave: . How about you? Do you have a formal background in Climatology, Climate Physics, or Meteorology? Or are you also basically repeating what you have read? And regardless of whether or not we both are repeating what we have read, is that "ignorance".
Nope. But I did take a couple earth science classes in college and have beastly Wikipedia skills. :)
No, but it demonstrates the fact that what we think we know may in fact be wrong or terribly misunderstood or incomplete. It shows the folly of arguing that a "consensus" proves anything in Science.
Sure it doesn't prove it, but when it comes to believing something vs not believing something, I'll probably go with the option that has the backing of the majority of the scientific community.
I was wondering if you'd get to this standard-issue well-poisoning. Let me put the shoe on the other foot:

I'm also wary about an article posted in Global Warming advocating publications. I may be wrong on this, but they're all government funding based news sources, so theyre (sic) likely to be skewed in favor of what "truth" is more convenient to getting more government funds. Some have called them "a mouthpiece of government grant hunters".
True, true. I'm careful not to get all my news from a single source because of this. :P
IOW, while TWSJ was the publication, the article authors have ample expertise and credentials. It wasn't simply for brevity that I did not include those two sentences in what I quoted this AM. To be honest, that you didn't bother to read the article far enough (if at all) to learn the authors' credentials, yet still dismissed them as bogeyman-corporation mouthpieces, doesn't surprise me.
I wasn't challenging their credentials, I'm sure they're fine scientists. I did read the article itself though and the main thing I took away from it that it's too early to say that the jury is in on climate change and that we probably don't have adequate knowledge and resources to accurately measure climate change over time. Which I disagree with, I think modern science fields including climatology have been able to make accurate predictions based on their theories.
I am committed to belief in God, as the most morally demanding, psychologically enriching, intellectually satisfying and imaginatively fruitful hypothesis about the ultimate nature of reality known to me - Keith Ward
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